Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Dealing with Eskom's load shedding

Posted by Duncan Drennan at 08:31 Tags: , , ,
Load shedding and Eskom have been on the lips of many South Africans over the past few weeks. We have had some of our worst electrical outages ever — even to the point of mines being forced to close. We are in the middle of an energy crisis and fortunately everyone has now realised that.

On Friday the government released a plan to deal with this crisis, along with a background document explaining the current situation, and some more details of the plan.

The problem is that there has been a rapid growth in demand and the reserve capacity has been consumed, leaving Eskom with only about 8–10% reserve margin. They want to have 15% reserve margin. The current small margin puts a lot of physical strain on the grid as it reduces time for maintenance (generators have to run more), and results in the generators running harder (like driving your car close to the red line the whole time). These stresses result in more unplanned outages.

For example, in the week of 14 January a total of 8700MW (22%) of the capacity was unavailable. 5000MW of that was due to unplanned outages.

In the medium and long term Eskom is continuing to expand their capacity, but in the short term drastic measures need to be taken to keep the economy supplied with electricity. Right now Eskom needs to release about 3000MW of capacity to provide enough "breathing room." That is a large chunk of power....although you might be surprised at how easily it can be obtained.

There is a single viable option to solve this crisis in the short term, and that is power conservation. The government and Eskom have identified this and have the following short term goals (my comments below the bulleted lists):
  1. Introduction of a quota system (rationing) based on success in Brazil
    • Consumption reduction targets for
      • Industial: 10%
      • Commercial: 15%
      • Hotels, resorts, shopping centres, conference centres: 20%
      • Large offices, government buildings: 15%
      • Agriculture: 5%
      • Residential: 10%
    • Penalty tariffs for use above quotas
    • Cut–off of repeat offenders
    • Incentives for exceeding savings targets
    • Trading of used quotas for large consumers

    Brazil's system was pretty simple: all users had to reduce their consumption to 80% of their previous year's consumption. There were penalties for not complying, and incentives for exceeding the targets. Large consumers could trade their excess savings. Interestingly, Brazil's greatest savings came from the low end of the market.

    The key to making this work would be to implement the simplest practical system, and stick to it.

    I think that it is a reasonable proposal, and could have the fastest impact, as there would be direct cost implications for all users, which would inspire energy savings and efficiency.

  2. Efficient lighting roll–out programme (target 750MW by 2010)
    • CFL roll–out to users
    • Immediate restriction on sale of incandescent light bulbs

    There is an estimated immediate savings of 600MW if all residential households change to CFLs. I think energy efficient lighting is great, but residential users are typically only using lighting at night, so this does not really play a role during the day. I believe that if businesses focus on improving their lighting efficiency it could make a significant contribution towards the targets.

    It is also interesting that there are plans to back up the drive for energy efficient lighting with a restriction on incandescent lighting. 20 lumens per watt will be the minimum lighting efficiency allowed. CFLs and quartz halogen bulbs are both more efficient than this (examples of lighting efficiencies). For those of you concerned about mercury, there is a plan to develop a disposal protocol for the CFLs.

  3. Solar water heating programme (target 650MW)
    • 1 million installations over three years
    • Unit cost and production capacity are issues

    The high cost and slow pay–off of solar heating make it unappealing as a retrofit for residential users. Industrial users probably stand to win the most by changing over, and the next point definitely has merits.

  4. National housing specification
    • Mandate all new houses be built with solar geyser or gas geyser
    • Time switch or interlocker between geyser and stove
    • Ceiling insulation
    • Geyser insulation
    • Double glazing
    • Weather stripping of doors and windows

    The actual impact of this will take a while to materialise, but the benefits will be reaped for years to come. Interlocker switches will ensure that geysers and stoves do not operate concurrently, reducing the peak demand in the mornings and evenings. Improvements in insulation will reduce the need for heating and cooling, which is a benefit to the national grid, as well as the user.
Medium term goals include smart metering (I still do not understand how this helps with the load), fuel switching (to LPG), conversion of traffic lights and public lights (to solar powered), and the conversion of water heating to solar in the hospitality industry.

Overall, I think the approach is correct, but the reality is that the power still lies in our hands. That is a great responsibility for each of us. If we want to see our country grow (and our mines working again!) we need to each take responsibility for reducing our energy consumption as much as possible. We (and the government) need to take immediate action to resolve this problem.

I believe that the government and Eskom should embark on a huge national advertising campaign to support this plan. It should be hard hitting and demonstrate that each of us has a role to play in securing our future. It should become socially unacceptable to use power inefficiently. We each need to stand up for our own future.

To find out how to help read the 7 best ways to stop load shedding.

2 comments :

  1. Anonymous3/11/2008 11:58 am

    The executive management of Eskom performed to such an extent over the past three
    years that long term performance bonuses of R10,3 million will be paid to them on 31
    March 2008. The question is; how is it possible that South Africa is sitting without
    electricity while the government owned company that is responsible for power
    generation will pay out “performance” bonuses. The answer lies in the nature and the
    performance measurement criteria of these bonuses.

    To read more visit www.powergroup.org.za under heading ESKOM MANAGEMENT TO RECEIVE “PERFORMANCE”
    BONUSSES

    It is now time to stop payout of the bonuses. Voice your concern. Visit www.mypetition.co.za.

    Newsletter with recognition of www.forensies.com a partner of Powergroup. Contact us if you want to partner with Powergroup.

    Riaan Oosthuysen
    www.powergroup.org.za
    www.mypetition.co.za
    www.reoproks.co.za

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous3/18/2008 10:45 am

    Power Shedding


    Power Shedding is back, at least in Gauteng. I’m not sure what is happening in the rest of the country but I presume it happening everywhere. I’ve listened to the traffic reports this morning, spoke to some people and received a lot of report of inconvenience and disruptions.

    We called the Powergroup into life during January this year in the mist of Load Shedding. Shortly thereafter Load Shedding stopped and everybody was happy again. This weeks Load Shedding according to Eskom is due to ‘n sudden demand of Electricity due to the cold weather. This of course is just ‘n forerunner in the small for the winter on hands. What’s happening now will just repeat on a much bigger scale in the winter to come. In the mean time at least 4 of Eskom generators are out of commission. This just reflects back to the reports brought out by www.forensies.com which indicated a lack of planning and maintenance on the whole Electricity grit.

    In the mean time Eskom shifts the blame to the consumer. They show their teeth and indicate if we do not use less power we will feel their grunt. I agree, we must use less electricity to get through this crisis, but we must also demand heads to roll of people who are the authors of this crisis and replace them with competent people who does not only do the talk, but also do the walk. If one’s look at Eskom’s financial statements it is clear on their own account that they are the only authors of the electricity crisis.

    Million of people had billions of damages due to mismanagement of Eskom and it is time to claim back that was taken away en pressurize Eskom and Government to implement a plan of action and not just talk about it.

    I spoke to a lot op people who indicated that what will it help to take on a giant like Eskom. There is a duty on everyone of us to act now. If we do not act we will give Eskom and the Government the green light to proceed with mismanagement. Just look at our roads, look at our municipalities, look at the state of our rivers, and look at the state of service in government organizations. Government organizations are kept alive by business that is forced to do the work of Government officials if business wants to keep the economy alive. I see at the Masters Office, Magistrate Courts, and Municipality Offices. How long will we tolerate this?

    I’ve been criticized that I am using emotions and religion to make profit out of an unfortunate crisis in the country. I’ve been criticized that I am busy with touting. I believe that God uses people to bring change about. This means that God will use people to turn our country back to the country it is supposed to be. I am willing to stand up and make a difference. Are you?

    If everyone runs away from the problems in our beautiful South Africa with all of its opportunities, I will stil be here because I believe in this country. I know what God has in store for this Country and I know that I’ve got a purpose in this country, do you?

    I the mean time Eskom bosses cant wait for the 31 of March 2008 due in 13 days when they will receive an huge bonus of more than R10 Million for allowing this Electricity crises and all we can do is complain, criticize en point fingers but doing nothing, I repeat nothing at all. When will we wake up? When will we put our money where our mouth is?

    Powergroup is waiting in anticipation for South Africans and anybody who wants to make a difference in this beautiful country. Powergroup with their experts www.forensies.com are already in the position to prove in court that Eskom was negligent in managing electricity in South Africa. According to their own financial statements there is more than enough money available to build more power stations and to pay out damages to people who have been hit hard by this crisis. This has been so for the last 10 years. If we do not act, where will we be in 10 years?

    If we unite and stand together we will be the Giant who can force Eskom and Government to act now and we can be through this crisis before we know it. Thereafter we as citizens wil be able to force municipalities and governmental institutions to perform the duties and restore our country to the state it is supposed to be.

    Riaan Oosthuysen
    www.powergroup.org.za

    ReplyDelete

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